Market Outlook
July 16, 2019
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets are likely to open flat tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
BSE Sensex
0.4
161
38,897
Nifty
0.3
36
11,588
The US stock showed a lack of direction over the course of the trading day on
Mid Cap
-0.6
-88
14,466
Monday. Despite the choppy trading on the day, the major averages ended the
session at new record closing highs. The Dow moved upwards 0.1 percent to
Small Cap
-0.6
-87
13,689
27,359 and Nasdaq was up by 0.2 percent to 8,258.
Bankex
-0.5
-160
34,256
U.K. stocks were little changed in cautious trade on Monday after
China's economy expanded at the slowest pace in 27 years in the second quarter,
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
emphasizing the need for measures to stimulate domestic consumption and
Dow Jones
0.1
27
27,359
investment amid escalating trade disputes with the U.S. The FTSE 100 was up by 0.3
Nasdaq
0.2
14
8,258
percent to 7,532.
FTSE
0.3
26
7,532
On domestic front, Indian shares rose on Monday as IT major Infosys delivered
Nikkei
0.2
43
21,685
better-than-expected profit for the March quarter and investors shrugged off mixed
Hang Seng
0.2
40
28,471
data out of China. The benchmark BSE Sensex increased by 0.4 percent to 38,897.
Shanghai Com
0.4
13
2,930
News Analysis
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Exports fall for first time in nine months amid trade tensions
Advances
864
603
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Declines
1,615
1,236
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Unchanged
154
87
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Volumes (` Cr)
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Refer Pg5 onwards
BSE
2,853
NSE
29,544
Top Picks
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
(`)
(`)
(%)
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
Blue Star
Capital Goods Accumulate
748
867
15.9
FII
(877)
(3,748)
77,813
ICICI Bank
Financials
Buy
422
490
16.0
*MFs
86
(191)
7,904
Parag Milk Foods
Others
Buy
260
330
27.1
Bata India
Others
Buy
1,340
1,643
22.6
KEI Industries
Capital Goods
Buy
473
612
29.5
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
More Top Picks on Pg4
SPARC
149
19.3
INFY
779
7.2
PEL
2,078
6.8
DISHTV
33
5.8
DMART
1,426
4.9
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
DHFL
49
-29.2
CGPOWER
19
-9.1
ALBK
44
-7.7
RELCAPITAL
54
-6.7
MAGMA
100
-6.6
As on July 15, 2019
Market Outlook
July 16, 2019
News Analysis
Exports fall for first time in nine months amid trade tensions
India’s merchandise exports contracted for the first time in nine months in June
while imports shrank first time in four months, signalling that rising protectionism
and trade tensions between the US and China are impacting India’s trade
prospects as well.
Data released by the commerce ministry showed exports in June fell 9.71% to
$25.01 billion while imports dipped 9.06% to $40.29 billion, leaving behind a
trade deficit of $15.28 billion during the month
Commerce secretary Anup Wadhawan said the temporary shutdown
of ONGC Mangalore Petrochemical Ltd and Jamnagar refinery for maintenance
in June adversely impacted exports of petroleum products. During June, petroleum
exports declined 33% while non-oil, non-gems and jewellery exports contracted by
4.86%.
Among other major items, exports of gems and jewellery (10.7%), readymade
garments (-9.18%), chemicals (-8.17%) and engineering goods (-2.65%) also
contracted.
Comparatively, China’s exports in June fell 1.3%, while imports shrank 7.3%,
leading to a trade surplus of $50.98 billion, significantly higher than what analysts
projected. The World Bank in its Global Economic Prospects released in June has
projected weakening of global trade in 2019. Global trade is projected to grow at
2.6% this year—a full percentage point below its own previous forecast.
Economic and Political News
WPI inflation eases to near two-year low at 2.02% in Jun
Corporate News
Ashok Leyland temporarily shuts Pantnagar plant for nine days over weak
demand
IndiGo secures credit facility worth₹2,577 crore amidst promoters dispute
Market Outlook
July 16, 2019
Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate
Federal Bank Ltd - July 16, 2019
Particulars (` cr)
1QFY20E
1QFY19
y-o-y (%)
4QFY19
q-o-q (%)
PAT
361
263
37.3
382
(5.5)
Yes Bank Ltd - July 17, 2019
Particulars (` cr)
1QFY20E
1QFY19
y-o-y (%)
4QFY19
q-o-q (%)
PAT
432
1,260
(65.7)
(1,507)
Wipro Ltd - July 17, 2019
Particulars (` cr)
1QFY20E
1QFY19
y-o-y (%)
4QFY19
q-o-q (%)
Sales
14,865
14,231
4.4
15,161
(1.9)
EBIDTA
3,007
2,682
12.2
3,258
(7.7)
%
20
19
21
PAT
2,323
2,121
9.5
2,484
(6.5)
Market Outlook
July 16, 2019
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur well
for Cooling products business which is out pacing
Blue Star
7,204
748
867
15.9
the market growth. EMPPAC division's profitability
to improve once operating environment turns
around.
Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives
sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster
ICICI Bank
2,72,570
422
490
16.0
resolution of NPA would reduce provision cost,
which would help to report better ROE.
High order book execution in EPC segment, rising
KEI Industries
3,730
473
612
29.5
B2C sales and higher exports to boost the revenues
and profitability
GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to
Maruti Suzuki
1,83,657
6,080
8,552
40.7
improve the company’s sales volume and margins,
respectively.
Third largest brand play in luggage segment
Increased product offerings and improving
Safari Industries
1,383
620
1,000
61.4
distribution network is leading to strong growth in
business. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4
years
We expect financialisation of savings and
Aditya Birla Capital
19,681
89
130
45.4
increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund
would ensure steady growth.
One of the leading Indian dairy products
companies in India created strong brands in dairy
products. Rising revenue share of high-margin
Parag Milk Foods
2,184
260
330
27.1
Value Added Products and reduction in interest cost
is likely to boost margins and earnings in next few
years.
HDFC Bank maintained its steady growth in the
4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by 20.3%.
Steady growth in interest income and other income
HDFC Bank
6,54,809
2,396
2,660
11.0
aided PAT growth. The Strong liability franchise
and healthy capitalisation provides strong earning
visibility. At the current market price, the bank is
trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.
We expect strong PAT growth on back of healthy
growth in automobile segment (on back of new
launches and facelifts in some of the model ) and
M&M
78,526
632
1,050
66.2
strong growth in Tractors segment coupled by its
strong brand recall and improvement in rural
sentiment
Market leader in the room air conditioner (RAC)
outsourced manufacturing space in India with a
market share of 55.4%. It is a one-stop solutions
Amber Enterprises
2,570
817
910
11.4
provider for the major brands in the RAC industry
and currently serves eight out of the 10 top RAC
brands in India
BIL is the largest footwear retailer in India, offering
footwear, accessories and bags across brands. We
expect BIL to report net PAT CAGR of ~16% to
Bata India
17,225
1,340
1,643
22.6
~`3115cr over FY2018-20E mainly due to new
product launches, higher number of stores addition
and focus on women’s high growth segment and
margin improvement
Market Outlook
July 16, 2019
Continued...
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
SHTF is in the sweet spot with benefits from
stronger CV volumes, NIMs unaffected by rising
Shriram Transport Finance
23,996
1,058
1,470
39.0
bond yields on the back of stronger pricing
power and an enhancing ROE by 750bps over
FY18-20E, supported by decline in credit cost.
We expect JSPL’s top line to grow at 27% CAGR
over FY19-FY20 on the back of strong steel
demand and capacity addition. On the bottom
Jindal Steel & Power Limited
14,395
141
250
76.8
line front, we expect JSPL to turn in to profit by
FY19 on back of strong operating margin
improvement.
GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the Indian
market leader in glass-lined (GL) steel
equipment. GMM is expected to cross CAGR
GMM Pfaudler Ltd
1,854
1,269
1,570
23.8
15%+ in revenue over the next few years
mainly led by uptick in demand from user
industries and it is also expecting to increase its
share of non-GL business to 50% by 2020.
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals, amongst the
Indian Pharmaceutical companies, is well
placed to face the challenging generic markets,
given its focus on achieving growth through
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals
33,728
576
890
54.6
productivity. Aurobindo will report net revenue
& net profit CAGR of ~13% & ~8% resp.
during FY2018-20E. Valuations are cheap V/s
its peers and own fair multiples of 17-18x.
We believe advance to grow at a healthy CAGR
of 35% over FY18-20E. Below peers level ROA
RBL Bank
25,900
606
775
28.0
(1.2% FY18) to expand led by margin
expansion and lower credit cost.
TTK Prestige has emerged as one of the leading
brands in kitchen appliances in India after its
successful transformation from a single product
TTK Prestige
8,719
6,290
7,708
22.5
company to offering an entire gamut of home
and kitchen appliances. We are expecting a
CAGR of 18% in revenue and 25% in PAT over
FY2018-20.
Maintain Hold.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 16, 2019
Fundamental Call
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth
CCL Products
3,219
242
360
48.8
trajectory over FY18-20 backed by capacity
expansion and new geographical foray
We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of
~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of
Nilkamal
1,701
1,140
2,178
91.0
healthy demand growth in plastic division. On the
bottom-line front, we estimate
~10% CAGR to
`162cr owing to improvement in volumes.
Elantas Beck India is the Indian market leader in
liquid insulation segment used in electrical
equipments like motors, transformers etc. It derives
Elantas Beck India Ltd
1,665
2,100
2,500
19.0
demand from several industries which are expected
to register 10%+ CAGR in demand in the coming
years. We can book out from the stock with 16%
profit at Rs. 2500 TP.
Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures plywood
& allied products and medium density fibreboards
(MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR of ~14% to
Greenply Industries
1,738
142
256
80.7
~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly due to healthy
growth in plywood & lamination business on the
back of strong brand and distribution network
L&T Fin’s new management is on track to achieve
L&T Finance Holding
24,264
121
210
73.1
ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of
`3000cr would support advance growth.
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next
GIC Housing
1,382
257
424
65.2
two year; change in borrowing mix will help in NIM
improvement
Strong brands and distribution network would boost
Siyaram Silk Mills
1,411
301
549
82.4
growth going ahead. Stock currently trades at an
inexpensive valuation.
Expected to benefit from the lower capex
Music Broadcast Limited
1,578
57
95
66.5
requirement and 15 year long radio broadcast
licensing.
We expect Inox Wind to report exponential growth
in top-line and bottom-line over FY19-20E. The
growth would be led by changing renewable energy
industry dynamics in favor of wind energy segment
Inox Winds
1,498
68
120
77.8
viz. changes in auction regime from Feed-In-Tariff
(FIT) to reverse auction regime and Government’s
guidance for 10GW auction in FY19 and FY20
each.
Considering the strong CV demand due to change
in BS-VI emission norms (will trigger pre-buying
activities), pick up in construction activities and no
Ashok Leyland
25,099
86
156
82.5
significant impact on industry due to recent axle
load norms, we recommend BUY on Ashok Leyland
at current valuations.
Well planned strategy to grow small business loans
and cross-selling would propel fees income. We
Yes Bank
21,612
93
NA
NA
expect YES to grow its advance much higher than
industry and improvement in asset quality to
support profitability.
Market Outlook
July 16, 2019
Global economic events release calendar
Date
Time
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported
Estimated
May 16, 2019
JN
Housing Starts YoY
% Change
Sep
0.02
(0.01)
May 17, 2019
JN
Annualized Housing Starts
% Change
Sep
0.957m
0.950m
May 17, 2019
JN
Construction Orders YoY
% Change
Sep
0.01
--
May 20, 2019
12:00 AM
ES
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Sep
0.06
--
May 21, 2019
12:00 AM
RO
ILO Unemployment Rate
% Change
Sep
0.04
--
May 24, 2019
3:15 AM
DE
Unemployment Rate SA
% Change
Sep
0.03
--
May 25, 2019
4:30 AM
DE
Unemployment Rate Gross Rate
% Change
Sep
0.04
0.04
May 26, 2019
4:30 AM
FI
Trade Balance
% Change
Aug F
-400m
--
May 28, 2019
4:30 AM
TU
Economic Confidence
% Change
Oct
71.00
--
May 30, 2019
5:20 AM
TU
Trade Balance
% Ratio
Sep
-2.42b
-1.90b
May 30, 2019
5:20 AM
TU
Central Bank Inflation Report
%
June 02, 2019
5:30 AM
TH
Exports YoY
% Change
Sep
0.06
--
June 03, 2019
5:30 AM
TH
Exports
% Change
Sep
$22380m
--
June 04, 2019
5:31 AM
TH
Imports YoY
%
Sep
0.24
--
June 08, 2019
5:31 AM
TH
Imports
%
Sep
$21776m
--
June 09, 2019
5:31 AM
TH
Trade Balance
Thousands
Sep
$604m
--
June 10, 2019
6:00 AM
TH
BoP Current Account Balance
% Change
Sep
$753m
$1200m
June 11, 2019
0-Jan-00
AU
CPI YoY
% Change
3Q
0.02
0.02
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 16, 2019
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
10.0
8.5
8.4
9.1
9.0
8.0
7.3
7.5
9.0
7.0
7.0
8.1
8.0
7.6
7.7
7.0
6.5
8.0
6.8
7.0
7.0
6.0
7.0
6.3
6.6
4.8
6.1
4.6
4.5
4.6
5.0
5.6
3.8
6.0
4.0
2.6
5.0
3.0
1.7
4.0
2.0
1.0
0.3
3.0
-
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(%)
6.0
5.2
5.07
54.0
4.9
4.9
5.0
4.4
4.6
4.3
4.2
52.0
3.7
3.7
4.0
3.4
50.0
3.0
2.6
2.3
2.1
2.0
48.0
2.0
1.0
46.0
-
44.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
35.0
7.00
30.0
6.50
25.0
6.00
20.0
5.50
15.0
5.00
10.0
4.50
5.0
4.00
0.0
3.50
(5.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research As of 15 April, 2019
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 16, 2019
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
8.0
(%)
6.9
7.0
5.8
6.0
5.3
5.0
5.0
1.1
3.7
4.0
2.5
3.0
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.5
1.4
0.8
1.0
0.3
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
6.7
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.4
5.2
5.0
3.7
4.0
3.0
1.8
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.6
1.5
2.0
0.7
0.7
1.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research As of 25 Sep, 2018
Market Outlook
July 16, 2019
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
1,00,995
4.1
5.8
38.8
Russia
Micex
2,559
0.0
1.5
10.9
India
Nifty
11,789
-1.1
1.4
10.0
China
Shanghai Composite
2,979
2.8
-3.6
4.6
South Africa
Top 40
51,925
3.8
9.7
3.7
Mexico
Mexbol
44,686
-11.2
-15.1
-11.3
Indonesia
LQ45
1,006
-3.2
4.1
-8.5
Malaysia
KLCI
1,708
1.4
1.7
-8.0
Thailand
SET 50
1,099
0.2
0.6
-8.9
USA
Dow Jones
26,600
7.2
2.6
9.6
UK
FTSE
7,426
3.7
2.0
-2.8
Japan
Nikkei
21,276
3.3
0.3
-4.6
Germany
DAX
12,399
5.7
7.6
0.8
France
CAC
5,539
6.4
3.5
4.0
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research As of 06 July, 2019
Market Outlook
July 16, 2019
Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
17-08-2018
Top Picks
Ashok Leyland
128
156
Open
10-08-2018
Top Picks
Inox Wind
107
127
Open
30-11-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
7,206
8,200
Open
09-08-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
6,206
7,500
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Aurobindo Pharma
603
780
Open
30-08-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
626
690
Open
06-07-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
565
670
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Yes Bank
348
418
Open
30-06-2018
Top Picks
Jindal Steel & Power
222
350
Open
20-06-2018
Top Picks
Shriram Transport Finance Com
1,466
1,764
Open
30-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
918
1,007
Open
23-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
842
955
01-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
862
948
18-06-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
779
896
14-06-2018
Top Picks
Amber Enterprises
1,026
1,230
Open
07-06-2018
Top Picks
M&M
918
1050
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
M&M
860
990
03-05-2018
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holding
171
210
Open
02-05-2018
Top Picks
HDFC Bank
1944
2315
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
573
1016
Closed(17/08/2018)
20-04-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
781
984
15-05-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
310
410
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
249
333
27-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,170
1,287
Open
18-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,024
1,200
07-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
984
1,100
29-06-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
932
1,020
14-05-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
818
900
06-04-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
712
861
07-03-2018
Fundamental
Ashok Leyland Ltd
139
163
Closed (26/04/2018)
03-03-2018
Fundamental
Greenply Industries
340
395
Open
27-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
974
1,071
Open
14-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
868
1,000
07-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
788
870
16-07-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
693
800
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
651
750
21-02-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
532
650
31-05-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
348
Closed (31/05/2018)
16-02-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
433
510
07-02-2018
Fundamental
Elantas Beck India Ltd.
2155
2500
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
ICICI Bank
352
416
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
Aditya Birla Capital
167
218
Open
04-01-2018
Fundamental
CCL Products
278
360
Open
03-01-2018
Fundamental
Nilkamal Ltd
1880
2178
Open
01-01-2018
Fundamental
Capital First Ltd
693
850
Closed (15/01/2018)
30-12-2017
Fundamental
Shreyans Industries Ltd
205
247
Closed
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 16, 2019
Exhibit 8: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
160
Closed (09/05/2018)
21-12-2017
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
118
131
18-12-2017
Fundamental Menon Bearings Limited
92
114
Closed (17/01/2018)
14-12-2017
Top Picks
Ruchira Papers Ltd.
188
244
Closed (09/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
280
Closed(17/05/2018)
28-11-2017
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
317
400
19-12-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
85
Closed(18/06/2018)
06-11-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
74
96
16-10-2017
FundamentalEndurance Technologies Ltd
1111
1277
Closed (01/12/2017)
11-09-2017
Top Picks
GIC Housing
533
655
Open
10-10-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
404
475
Open
20-07-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
368
434
07-07-2017
Fundamental L&T Finance Holdings Ltd
149
179
Closed (28/8/2017)
06-07-2017
Fundamental
Syngene International
478
564
Closed (1/3/2018)
05-07-2017
Top Picks
Maruti
7371
10619
Open
05-06-2017
Top Picks
Karur Vysya Bank
127
100
Closed (12/03/2018)
23-05-2018
Top Picks
KEI Industries
481
589
Open
04-01-2017
Top Picks
KEI Industries
125
485
31-05-2018
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1978
Closed (31/05/2018)
01-12-2016
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1700
2441
17-10-2016
Top Picks
Asian Granito
267
534
Closed (18/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
TV Today Network
460
Closed (17/05/2018)
04-08-2016
Top Picks
TV Today Network
297
603
05-04-2016
Top Picks
DHFL
189
720
Open
25-06-2018
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
Closed(25/06/2018)
05-01-2016
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
265
Open
08-12-2015
Top Picks
Blue Star
357
867
Open
30-10-2015
Top Picks
Siyaram Silk Mills
186
851
Open
Source: Company
Market Outlook
July 16, 2019
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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